Mar 4, 2026
PLOS (Public Library of Science)
Author summary Mosquito-borne arboviral diseases are a global health concern, particularly in Africa, where rich biodiversity and tropical climates favour vector breeding and virus emergence. Wesselsbron virus (WSLV), Sindbis virus (SINV), and Middelburg virus (MIDV) were first detected in Africa and have the potential to cause human and animal outbreaks, yet this risk has not been mapped. Our study sought to describe the role of climatic and land-use changes in the geographical distribution of the viruses and five suspected vectors. We developed species distribution models based on the species’ known occurrence, current and future climatic and land-use conditions. We mapped areas that are ecologically suitable for vector and arbovirus presence, highlighting potential human exposure. Key predictors of suitable habitats for the vectors were precipitation during dry and warm seasons, urbanization, and human and livestock presence. Notably, ecological risk for arboviral presence may be higher in rural areas, but with changes in ecology and land use, it could increase even in urban areas. Our findings reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity and projected shifts in vector and arbovirus presence given ecological changes. In settings where the evidence for vector-host-virus ecology is underdeveloped, our ecological risk maps can indicate areas that could be targeted for vector control and intersectoral surveillance to strengthen early warning.